Market insights
The desk's view, in writing.
Strategic FX briefings, weekly outlooks and market analysis from the Lamera Capital dealing desk. Written for people with real currency exposure, not for clicks.
Jackson Hole: The Dollar's Next Test
The Treasury's bond buyback pushed the Dollar to a three-month low and the rally unwound in a day. Why Warsh at Jackson Hole is now the Dollar's next test.
Read the latest pieceFX Outlook: Why Markets Are Starting to Worry About Growth Again
Sterling softened after weaker UK PMI data raised concerns over slowing growth, while the euro remained under pressure from weak Eurozone activity.
Read the pieceThe Sterling Trap: Bond Markets, a Broken Growth Story, and the Quiet Erosion No One Is Pricing
UK gilt yields at multi-decade highs. Streeting resigns. Burnham circles. The pound has dropped against both the dollar and the euro. Why the trap is tightening.
Read the pieceGBP, EUR, USD in Focus: Politics, Inflation and Central Banks Keep FX Markets on Edge
Sterling steadies as UK political tensions ease, while persistent inflation and cautious central banks continue shaping GBP/EUR, EUR/USD, and GBP/USD. We break down the key market drivers behind the latest currency moves.
Read the pieceThe Stagflation Moment: Sticky Inflation, a Hawkish Bond Market, and Where the Fed Goes Next
Inflation is leaking into the data and the bond market is pricing Fed hikes, not cuts. We disagree. Why we still see one cut by December and what it means for sterling.
Read the pieceGBP EUR USD Outlook: Dollar Supported by Risk as Sterling Faces Political Pressure
Dollar strength returns as geopolitical risk & rising oil support USD, while sterling faces growing political uncertainty. Here’s how to approach GBP, EUR, USD this week.
Read the pieceThe Three Central Banks Have Spoken: What Yesterday Told Us About the Path Ahead
The Fed, ECB and BoE all held this week. The substance is in what each one signalled. Why the ECB is walking into a mistake, the Fed cuts later, and sterling stays well placed.
Read the pieceFX Market Outlook: Central Banks, Energy Inflation and EUR/USD, GBP Risks Ahead
The Fed, ECB and BoE face the same inflation shock, but may respond differently. See how this policy “seesaw” is shaping EUR/USD and GBP moves.
Read the pieceThe Three Central Banks: UAE, Stagflation and a Window for Dollar Sellers
The Fed, ECB and BoE all decide this week as the UAE quits OPEC and Brent breaks $115. Why the dollar's recent strength is a window for sellers, not a turn.
Read the pieceSterling's Opening: Why the ECB May Be About to Make a Mistake
The ECB is signalling hikes into a weakening European economy. We think it's a mistake. Why this creates an asymmetric setup for sterling against the dollar and euro.
Read the pieceBeyond Hormuz: Why the Warsh Hearing and the US Rate Path Are Now Driving the Dollar
Why the Warsh confirmation hearing and the Fed's rate path are now the main drivers of dollar weakness, and what it means for GBP and EUR.
Read the pieceHormuz Is Open, a Deal Is Close and The Dollar Is Falling
Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz completely open for all commercial vessels today. A $20 billion cash-for-uranium deal is on the table. Trump says a peace deal is very close. Here is what it means for GBP, EUR and USD.
Read the pieceFX Treasury Management Explained: How Businesses Manage Currency Risk, Liquidity, and Cash Flow
FX treasury management explained. Learn how businesses manage currency risk, liquidity, and cash flow to protect margins and improve financial outcomes.
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